Von’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 with Dynasty Analysis

1 month ago Barry Von Comments Off on Von’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 with Dynasty Analysis

Many inexperienced or poor dynasty owners who don’t watch film or look at injury history and advanced metrics like Breakout Age and Dominator Rating (especially in IDP leagues) go into their rookie draft with one resource. This one resource is the NFL Draft, and these owners will take whoever was the highest taken player in the NFL Draft at the position of their need or highest overall player if they are going BPA. Not to say this is a bad strategy, NFL Draft capital is one of the most predictive measures for future NFL success and is one of the major things I personally take into account when I am making my pick at a rookie draft, but there’s more to it than just how high the player was chosen. I will trust an NFL teams analysis of a player more than my own, they spend much more time, money and resources on scouting and trying to find who is the best player to take for their team than I do for my teams, but there is other things that are much more important for fantasy analysis that NFL teams don’t consider because they are not playing fantasy football.  The NFL Draft shouldn’t be the only thing you use when making picks for rookie drafts especially in IDP with positional importance and scoring differences. Anyway, let’s get to the mock! 

Scoring note: Considering standard scoring for IDP, 4 Point Per TD for QBs and PPR for WRs, RBs and TEs.

IDP Roster Note: Considering 2LB, 2DL, 2DB starting requirements.

Draft note: Considering standard four round, 12 team rookie drafts.

Pick #1, Bengals: Joe Burrow, Quarterback, LSU

The Bengals are 100% taking Burrow and he will start right away. He will be valuable immediately in fantasy as a starting QB on a team with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and Auden Tate as his receivers with Joe Mixon out of the backfield.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.01

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.12-2.06

In Superflex, Burrow is the 1.01. If you’re set at QB and would rather take Jonathan Taylor or D’Andre Swift, then you should trade back with someone who needs a QB. In 1QB, people tend to let even the best QB prospects slip down during the draft as manager tend to think they’re set at QB. If Burrow is sitting there and I’m in the 12-18 pick range I’m thinking hard about taking him  unless I have a stud like Mahomes or Watson. The QBs who slip to the 2nd round in 1QB always have much more value one year later. 

Pick #2, Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

For all the people saying either that the Redskins will trade down to someone who wants Tua or even that they’ll take Tua, calm down. Unless the Redskins can trade down and still be in a position to draft Chase Young they will stay at #2.

Where I would take him: 2.06-3.06

Taking Young in an IDP league depends completely on how your league values IDP players and what IDP scoring setting you have. In a semi-standard league I would take Young from anywhere from the middle of the second to the middle of the third because he has a good a chance as any young defensive player right now to be at the top of his position in fantasy for years to come and if you’re taking a late 3rd or 4th round flier over that you’re crazy.

Pick #3, Lions, Jeff Okudah, Cornerback, Ohio State

The 2nd straight Buckeye picked in the draft will replace Darius Slay as Detroit’s CB1 next to recently signed Desmond Trufant. This is a possible trade up spot for a team looking to add Tua, Justin Herbert or maybe even Jordan Love.

Where I would take him in: Undrafted

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Okudah doesn’t have amazing interception numbers and relies more on excellent coverage to defend against receivers. Unless your league rewards passes defended very, very heavily I would leave him to waivers. 

Pick #4, Giants: Isaiah Simmons, Linebacker, Clemson

Simmons is listed as a linebacker but he can also play safety or cornerback if needed and some teams have reportedly said that they think he will eventually end up as a defensive back in the NFL. 

Where I would take him: 2.08-3.04

I think Simmons should be taken in a smaller range than Young as I think his ceiling is not as high as he will likely spend a few at CB which will significantly reduce his tackling numbers than if he was at LB. Even with that I think his floor is higher than Young as linebacker is the most dependable IDP position in fantasy. I think he will contribute to your team on day one but won’t be a elite fantasy option at the position for at least a few years which is why I won’t be taking him any higher than the late 2nd even if I have a need at LB I can probably find a similar producing short term option for much cheaper on the trade market.

Pick #5, Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Alabama

If not for his hip injury Tua would likely be the consensus 1.01 over Burrow in NFL and fantasy drafts but with concerns over his hip and reports that he even failed a physical with one team he’ll fall to the Dolphins at five.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.02-1.04

Where I would take him in 1QB: 2.04-2.12

In Superflex after Burrow, if you have a good QB situation and feel like you’re a running back away from contending or you’re scared by his injury history, then fine by me if you decide to take Jonathan Taylor or D’Andre Swift over Tua at 1.02 or 1.03. He shouldn’t drop after 1.04 in Superflex after Burrow and the two RBs. In 1QB almost everything I said about Burrow applies to Tua here except for Tua’s added injury risk pushing him out of the early 2nd for me but he should still be drafted by the end of the 3rd.

Pick #6, Chargers: Jordan Love, Quarterback, Utah State

My first hot take of this draft is that Love will be selected by the Chargers at #6 before Justin Herbert. I think the Chargers will go for upside and groom Love for a year under Tyrod Taylor like the Chiefs did with Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.05-1.08

Where I would take him in 1QB: 2.08-3.04

In Superflex any top ten QB should not fall out of the top eight picks. Many people made this mistake with Daniel Jones last year and are now regretting it. If you are scared of Tua’s injuries and want to take Love over him at the 1.04 if both are available, I’d respect that but still think Tua is the better option there. If Love does that drafted by the Chargers he should be taken by the first QB needy team after Tua is taken. Everything I said about Love in regards with Tua for Superflex applies here. I would not let a top ten QB pick fall past the early third though even in 1QB.

Pick #7, Panthers: Derrick Brown, Defensive Tackle, Auburn

I have a feeling this pick will be traded at the draft just I’m not sure who so I’ll leave it with the Panthers for now. The Panthers even after signing Teddy Bridgewater and extending Christian McCafferey are in a rebuild and I expect them to take Brown here.

Where I would take him: 4.08-4.12

Brown is a pure run stopper and isn’t a huge sack guy only getting 12.5 sacks in four years at Auburn. I wouldn’t recommend taking him in fantasy drafts until the last few picks as an upside flier if he can generate some sacks.

Pick #8, Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, Offensive Tackle, Iowa

Wirfs is the best tackle in the draft and the Cardinals will take him to help the offensive line for Kyler Murray.

Where I would take him: N/A

Pick #9, Jaguars: Jedrick Wills, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

The Jaguars will pick Wills to protect Gardner Minshew and possibly their QB of the future!

Where I would take him: N/A

Pick #10, Browns: Mekhi Becton, Offensive Tackle, Louisville

The Browns take Becton a humongous tackle to protect Baker and replace Greg Robinson. This finishes up with the mini o-line run and now we get back to the players you can actually draft.

Pick #11, Jets: CeeDee Lamb, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma

Lamb is my personal WR1 in this class but you’re splitting hairs between him and Jerry Jeudy. I think the Jets could go either way here and turn out great.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.05-1.08

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.03-1.05

In SF I think Burrow, Tua, and both Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift should go ahead of CeeDee if he lands to the Jets as he’ll be the WR1 on the Jets from day one and won’t have much room to work inside the numbers where he excels. After my top four in Superflex at 1.05-1.08 if this mock holds true I think the next four picks are Ceedee, Jeudy, JK Dobbins and Jordan Love in any order. Everything about Ceedee in Superflex applies in 1QB except that he’s obviously ranked ahead of Burrow, Tua and Love.

Pick #12, Raiders: Jerry Jeudy, Wide Receiver, Alabama

There has been a lot of talk recently that Jeudy is falling down draft boards and that he possibly could fall to the 4th receiver in the draft below Henry Ruggs, and one of the other 2nd tier receivers. These rumors, to me, are just smokescreens and I think Ceedee and Jeudy are the guaranteed top two receivers taken in the draft. 

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.05-1.08

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.03-1.05

As I said before, choosing between Jeudy and Ceedee is really just splitting hairs and even though I have Jeudy as my WR1 as of now, if this mock holds up and Ceedee lands with the Jets and Jeudy with the Raiders, Jeudy will likely become my WR1 even though I’m not a huge believer in landing spot for WRs. Everything I said for where I would take Ceedee applies to Jeudy and I would consider taking them in the same pick ranges as each other.

Pick #13, 49ers: Javon Kinlaw, Defensive Tackle, South Carolina

The 49ers, who acquired this pick by trading former 1st Round D-Tackle Deforest Buckner, I think the 49ers draft his replacement in Kinlaw, the second best interior line prospect in the draft after Derrick Brown. 

Where I would take him: 4.04-4.10

Unlike with Derrick Brown who is a pure run stopper, Kinlaw gets to the QB a bit with 10 sacks in the last two seasons making him more valuable in fantasy. He could have some opportunity to get into the backfield by facing easier matchups as a result of the amount of talent San Francisco has on their D-Line possibly leading to fantasy relevance for Kinlaw. I think he’s definitely worth a late round pick in IDP leagues and shouldn’t be left to waivers.

Pick #14, Buccaneers: Andrew Thomas, Offensive Tackle, Georgia

The Buccaneers take Thomas to protect Tom Brady’s blindside.

Where I would take him: N/A

Pick #15, Broncos: Henry Ruggs, Wide Receiver, Alabama

Ruggs is a speedster of the John Ross or DeSean Jackson type who could become an excellent target for Drew Lock and who could open up the top of the defense for Courtland Sutton.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.09-1.12

Where I would take him in 1.06-1.09

In SF, I have Ruggs firmly below the top three QBs, top two RBs, top two WRs and the 2nd tier of RBs of JK Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Cam Akers. I wouldn’t be against taking Ruggs ahead of the 2nd tier RBs placing him in the late 1st for me if you’re looking for an upside receiver. In 1QB I move him up three spots on the big board ahead of the QBs. 

Pick #16, Falcons: CJ Henderson, Cornerback, Florida

While I believe the Falcons will trade up in the draft possibly targeting Kinlaw for the purposes of the mock I’m leaving them here to take Henderson to replace Desmond Trufant who left in free agency.

Where I would take him: Undrafted 

Like Okudah, unless your league HEAVILY rewards passes defended I would leave him to waivers.

Pick #17, Cowboys: Kristian Fulton, Cornerback, LSU

The Cowboys badly need secondary help with many key players leaving in free agency,

Where I would take him: Undrafted

Copy and paste of what I said about Okudah and Henderson.

Pick #18, Dolphins (via Pittsburgh): Xavier McKinney, Safety, Alabama

McKinney is an all around stud who in my mind is the best safety in the draft by far. The Dolphins will take him with the pick they traded Minkah Fitzpatrick with.

Where I would take him: 3.09-4.05

He should get plenty of tackling opportunities on the Dolphins and should be taken in the late 3rd-early 4th.

Pick #19, Raiders (via Chicago): Justin Herbert, Quarterback, Oregon

Herbert’s fall in my mock ends at nineteen where Jon Gruden creates the absolutely stacked QB group of Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert and Nathan Peterman.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 2.01-2.08

Where I would take him in 1QB: 3.06-4.06

If Herbert were to be drafted by the Raiders I would guess he would sit behind Carr and Mariota until one of them (likely Mariota) gets traded during the preseason when someone’s backup or starter gets hurt. Then Herbert would be the 2021 starting QB after sitting a year like Mahomes did. He would have less win now value but a potential reliable QB in SF in the beginning of the 2nd round to a rebuilding team would be awfully exciting to me. In 1QB the chance’s that he ever becomes into something are much higher than the chances any of the other guys you’d pick there will and I’d take him 99/100 over a Joshua Kelly or a Deejay Dallas.

Pick #20, Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): K’Lavon Chiasson, Edge, LSU

Chiasson is a guy there’s a lot of debate about with many mocks having him either go to the 49ers at 13 or the Falcons at 16 and many others have him falling to the end of the 1st round. I think he’ll fall in the middle of that to the Jaguars at 20.

Where I would take him: 4.01-4.07

Chiasson is an athletic playmaker who is one of those high ceiling-low floor guys like Rashan Gary from last year’s draft. I think based on upside alone he’s well worth a 4th Round pick but there’s safer defensive options to take in the third round.

Pick #21, Eagles: Justin Jefferson, Wide Receiver, LSU

The Eagles BADLY need help at receiver and Jefferson would give Carson Wentz an elite slot receiver for the inevitable injury to Alshon Jeffery or DeSean Jackson.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.11-2.04

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.08-2.01

I think Jefferson is locked into the 1st round of rookie drafts if he is taken by the Eagles in 1QB and basically a lock in the 1.12 in Superflex behind the three top 10 QBs, the top five RBs and Ceedee, Jeudy and Ruggs.

Pick #22, Minnesota (via Buffalo): Jalen Reagor, Wide Receiver, TCU

I think Reagor will be taken with the main pick in the Stefon Diggs trade but Reagor will bring a new element for the Vikings as more of a speedster. Reagor ran an unofficial 4.22 40 yard dash at his virtual pro day and would create space inside the numbers for Adam Thielen and Bisi Johnson.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.11-2.04

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.08-2.01

While I think the ADP for Jefferson will be one spot ahead of Reagor if Jefferson goes to the Eagles and Reagor goes to the Vikings, I think personally I’d take Reagor over Jefferson as he has a much higher ceiling and most teams picking at the end of the first will be picking the rookies who they think can make the highest impact this year if they are contending.

Pick #23, New England: Kenneth Murray, Linebacker, Oklahoma

I think Belichick takes Murray to fill the hole left at linebacker with Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Jamie Collins all leaving in free agency.

Where I would take him: 2.08-3.06

Murray to the Patriots would be the 3rd IDP I’d take behind Isaiah Simmons and Chase Young as he is a tackling machine.

Pick #24, New Orleans: Patrick Queen, Linebacker, LSU

The Saints taking Queen would fill the hole left by AJ Klein who signed with the Bills in free agency.

Where I would take him: 3.12-4.12

Klein is much more of an off ball linebacker than Murray and the Saints have much less vacated tackles than the Patriots which is why I have his earliest to consider later than Murray’s last place to consider. Regardless, a rule of thumb of mine is all 1st round linebackers deserve to be drafted as an elite linebacker is a huge advantage for your and most LBs taken in the first round have the talent and potential to possibly do so.

Pick #25, Minnesota: AJ Terrell, Cornerback, Clemson

I’m a big believer in Terrell and have him mocked to Minnesota over other guys such as Jaylon Johnson, Trevon Diggs and Noah Igbinoghene.

Where I would take him: Undrafted

Like all the other corners you can leave him to waivers.

Pick #26, Dolphins (via Houston): Cesar Ruiz, Offensive Guard/Center, Michigan

Ruiz is a very big interior offensive lineman who can play any position on the interior line and will try to fill a Laremy Tunsil size hole in Miami.

Where I would take him: N/A

Pick #27, Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State

Gross-Matos has in my opinion the best name in the draft and the Seahawks need some help on the defensive line even if they do end up signing Jadeveon Clowney.

Where I would take him: 4.08-4.12

If you’re really in need of D-line help you could take him as you can likely count on him to get a few sacks after posting two straight eight sack seasons but he likely will never be a top end option at the position.

Pick #28, Ravens: Jonathan Taylor, Running Back, Wisconsin

The Ravens taking Jonathan Taylor would really be going all in on their rushing attack adding to already great RB room of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and the rushing of Lamar Jackson. Taking Taylor would create so many new possibilities for offensive coordinator Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh. I think that offense could legitimately support two RB1s in Ingram and Taylor.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.02-1.04

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.01-1.02

In 1QB the consensus top two are D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor but if Taylor lands with the Ravens then he is my consensus 1.01. In SF you can take either Burrow or Tua ahead but besides that it’s the same situation as in 1QB.

Pick #29, Titans: AJ Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

Epenesa was at one point mocked in the top five in some drafts and I think he would be a great value here as a very technical and methodical pass rusher.

Where I would take him: 4.06-4.12

Epenesa and Gross-Matos make up the back end of my tier two edge rushers but I think Epenesa’s upside is a bit higher and he has a better chance to be an every down player.

Pick #30, Packers: Brandon Aiyuk, Wide Receiver, Arizona State

Aiyuk will be drafted to the Packers to be the WR2 next to Davante Adams for now and the future.

Where I would take him in Superflex: 1.11-2.05

Where I would take him in 1QB: 1.08-2.02

Aiyuk is in the 2nd tier range with Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor. He should produce as a matchup based option this first year as he competes with Devin Funchess, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdez-Scantling especially as there might not be offseason workouts or OTAs.

Pick #31, San Francisco: Trevon Diggs, Cornerback, Alabama.

Trevon Diggs is actually new Bills receiver Stefon Diggs little brother who was one of the best cornerbacks in the country this year.

Where I would take him: Undrafted

Again, he’s a cornerback.

Pick #32, Kansas City: Neville Gallimore, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I would bet on Kansas City trading Chris Jones for an early second either during the next few days or during the draft. They’ll draft Gallimore here to be his replacement.

Where I would take him: Undrafted  

Kansas City’s defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to send blitzes that usually produce more sacks for linebackers and safeties than interior defensive lineman which usually makes them irrelevant for fantasy.

Other Mock Drafts:

CT’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Von’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0 w/ Dynasty Analysis

Riordans’s 2020 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

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