The Dynasty Economist article displays a current player’s value in the dynasty community. From this, I will outline statistics that will give evidence to indicate if each player is better or worse than that perceived value.
Here are two NFL receiver’s stats from their first 6 seasons in the NFL
WR1: 78% of games played, 464 receptions, 6511 yards, 48 touchdowns
WR2: 94% of games played, 462 receptions, 7260 yards, 48 touchdowns
Can you guess who these players are? Based on their stats lines, they are quite similar; WR1 has been more efficient in the games they have played, and WR2 has played more games while producing.
WR1 is OBJ and WR2 is Mike Evans. In light of all the OBJ news I know there will be many owners wondering what to do with OBJ. I put up these statistics to display what he has done (although sometimes elite) might not be worth the perceived name value of the player.
OBJ has been riddled with injuries over the last few seasons and it has been 3 full seasons since we have seen his true potential. Yes, the season he only played 12 games he was wr7 through the 12 weeks, but then that goes back to injury history. I remember in my startup draft having him and Hopkins in the elite WR tier. The stats since then have clearly brought OBJ out of that tier. So, you add the injury history, production drop, and current character issues, is OBJ really worth all that?
The positive narrative for OBJ is directly linked to Baker Mayfield. The sophomore slump hit him hard, even with the added weapons. Regardless, the hype for the Browns last season was out of control, making their offensive struggles all the more apparent. Although I have never been a Baker truther, he is definitely better than he showed last season and should bounce back. Add in that now they don’t have Freddie Kitchens running the show, it must get better. Thankfully Jarvis Landry strung together some pretty nice games at the end of the season to give the fantasy community hope for a receiving option in Cleveland. But why was it Landry and not OBJ that broke out? That comes back to Baker. When you’re not playing with confidence, you’re not going to air it out against their best corner even when you have OBJ. Instead, why not take your elite second weapon on a short route against a slot corner? OBJ still recieved 8+ targets in 8 games last season, so he is clearly their guy. If you believe in Cleveland then you can hold or buy OBJ. Just remember, in the last decade people only believed in Cleveland once, and we saw how that turned out last season.
I have seen people still get good value for OBJ based on the hope he can return to form and because people like pieces of the Browns (never thought I’d say that). I think you can get some good value even at 1:1. If you’re a rebuilding team, or a team that is looking to contend in a couple of years, using a piece like OBJ to get younger might be the way to go. Receivers like Juju or DJ Moore could be a great way to get younger without taking a massive production hit. If you are a contender, I still wouldn’t mind trading for a receiver like Mike Evans straight up. I think it’s time to get off the OBJ boat while the name value is still strong. Even though the Browns should be better next year, I don’t want to deal with the headache and questions of OBJ.