After his last season it’s easy to lose optimism in what the 2020 season holds for Alvin Kamara. The decline in touchdowns from 18 to 6 as a result of decreased red zone usage is tough to ignore and has left us all with many questions regarding the 2020 season. If you’re more of the reactionary type or one of the many fantasy owners using trades to get your fix while we wait patiently for football to return, then let me help clear things up for you before you make a huge mistake.
I absolutely needed the NFL Draft to happen. Up until about 6 weeks ago, my life basically revolved around sports. Short of NFL season openers, mid-March was the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness, MLB Opening Day, NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs and so on. Instead, it all came to a screeching halt because of COVID-19. Somehow, the NFL found a way to make the Draft work while still being safe, and for that, I thank them.
If you’re a Dynasty player, and your goal is victory, you’ve come to the right place. Today, we’re looking for discounted players that you can get for peanuts (pour one out for Mr. Peanut. What a weird commercial). And do remember, this is the Bargain Bin. We have a bin full of cheap players all scattered about for you to rifle through. All of these guys are gonna feel a little icky. But fortune favors the brave and the bold, so let’s do this.
In my previous article, Dynasty Method: Win Now Trade Targets, we discussed targets that could primarily help a team that needed production this season. In this article, we are going to discuss the opposite; moves an owner in a rebuild should consider in order to build a contending team in the future.
Generally, a rebuilding team is going to want to sell players that may only have a year or two of tread left on their tires while acquiring younger players (preferably at a discount) or additional rookie draft capital. This premise should be common sense. However, it takes some soul searching to come to terms with the fact that you may need to blow up your team and start over. Owners hold on to players for far too long because of name recognition and/or their past success with said player(s). This article attempts to help you identify some of those players you need to cut the cord on while also trying to acquire pieces to establish future dominance.
Fantasy owners alike know the feeling of anticipation of the official injury report to know whether it’s an IR designation or not. It can change your season in an instant, but knowing when to part ways or capitalize following a season ending injury can make all the difference. Lower extremity injuries are one of the most common with the knee being injured in most cases. NFL players with isolated ACL injuries have a quicker return to play time than those with multiple ligament injuries involving ACL/MCL and worse case ACL and PCL/LCL. More importantly running backs and receivers (WR/TE) have been shown to require increased time for return to play and have shown a lower level of performance post-injury.
Let’s be honest, in dynasty no one wants Todd Gurley. Who would’ve thought that it was possible to go from consecutive 1st overall RB performances, to getting released from his team and being a player fantasy owners intentionally avoid in the span of a few short years? Does this mean he is on his way out of Fantasy relevance completely or does it mean there is value to be had? Future Hall of Fame running back and NFL analyst Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD) certainly thinks so. After Gurley signed with Atlanta, MJD reflected on his own days with Dirk Koetter and predicted Gurley to finish with 280 total touches, 1200 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns. If Gurley has at least 12 receptions, this stat line would have put him as the RB2 overall last season in half point per reception (.5PPR) leagues. While he believes he has at least one elite season left, others view him as an “injury prone” back who lost a step, and is trying to salvage his career on a new team. What’s amazing is that somehow both seem equally realistic. In this article I intend to display recent statistics to provide an accurate depiction of the Gurley situation, providing information to create your own opinion of his value.
In my opinion, there are two types of teams in Dynasty Fantasy Football: the win-now team and the rebuilding team. Yes, arguments can be made for the middling teams as well, but if you are one of those teams, you should probably just blow it up and go into a full on rebuild. There’s nothing worse than coming in 4th in a dynasty league. No prizes, your draft pick sucks (you get the point). This article is going to focus on potential acquisitions that could provide a lot of value for a team in win-now mode. I will also be producing a subsequent article to help those teams that focusing on a rebuild.
The Dynasty Stash House is about examining the players that might not be household names, but can help round out the bottom of your roster. This is a less appreciated, but important process for constructing your dynasty team. Other than the top few guys, this list of players is for really deep leagues, but it can also be useful for watch list information. The best-case scenario, when adding lesser known prospects is that they exceed expectations and develop into starters. While that outcome is rarely the case, if any of these players end up becoming relevant enough to use as a spot start or as a trade addition, then you’ve done well. Hitting on bottom roster players can be just as gratifying as hitting on draft picks, especially when you factor in the low cost.
Would you believe me if I told you that Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Josh Jacobs each averaged between 100 and 110 all purpose yards per game in their rookie campaigns? Although the dynasty community will admit Jacobs is a great rookie back, he tends to not get the love that other running backs with the draft capital and first-year production tend to after their rookie seasons. Josh Jacobs clearly delivered as the consensus 1.01 for the 2019 fantasy rookie drafts from the start – in his first start he became the second back to have two touchdowns alongside 100yds since LaDainian Tomlinson in a debut game.
Free agency has come and gone, and as always, there are major shake-ups that have major dynasty implications. We will look at some of the transactions with the largest consequences and forecast what they mean for fantasy football in 2020 and beyond. While our main focus will be 2020, consider most, if not all of these observations to be true for the future as well.