There are many players each offseason that are under or overvalued based on many factors whether it be playing time concerns, injury risk, or projected changes in touches. Tons of players completely change course in whether they are trending up and down in fantasy circles. Some players that come to mind for me from this time last year were when Odell Beckham Jr. and Juju Smith-Schuster were being considered by most as the dynasty WR1 and WR2 respectively by many experts and analysts. Now both are being extremely undervalued as managers try to get the bad taste from last year off their team. The guys who I outline below are ones who I think you should either trade now as they are at their peak value, or players who you should try to trade for as I think they will outperform players who will be taken around them in startups.
Every season there are many consensus opinions for dynasty rookie drafts. Most of the players who are consistent contributors to your fantasy teams were at one point early picks in dynasty rookie drafts, but also every year there are players who slip through the cracks in the drafting process. These are who I project will be some of the Darius Slayton or the Preston Williams type of players who turned a few FAAB dollars into a mid second round value in trades, or locked in a spot on your roster. This article isn’t to say that you should be valuing that 6th round wide receiver who’s getting some hype in training camp (if it even happens this year) over guys like Bryan Edwards or Zack Moss. For every Darius Slayton or Preston Williams there’s many more Darwin Thompson’s who had an ADP in the 1st round of rookie drafts at one point last year which amounted to nothing. These are just some of the guys I’m targeting in the 4th or 5th round of my rookie drafts or allocating a decent amount of FAAB dollars to. I’m not necessarily saying all these guys will become fantasy relevant to the casual player sometime in the near future, but these are six guys who I’m keeping on my watch list in my leagues.
Many inexperienced or poor dynasty owners who don’t watch film or look at injury history and advanced metrics like Breakout Age and Dominator Rating (especially in IDP leagues) go into their rookie draft with one resource. This one resource is the NFL Draft, and these owners will take whoever was the highest taken player in the NFL Draft at the position of their need or highest overall player if they are going BPA. Not to say this is a bad strategy, NFL Draft capital is one of the most predictive measures for future NFL success and is one of the major things I personally take into account when I am making my pick at a rookie draft, but there’s more to it than just how high the player was chosen. I will trust a NFL teams analysis of a player more than my own, they spend much more time, money and resources on scouting and trying to find who is the best player to take for their team than I do for my teams, but there is other things that are much more important for fantasy analysis that NFL teams don’t consider because they are not playing fantasy football, and the NFL Draft shouldn’t be the only thing you use when making picks for rookie drafts especially in IDP with positional importance and scoring indifference. Let’s get to the mock!